I don't know if it's just me, but Sen Obama seems a little "shakey" in his recent campaign events. His "lipstick" gaffe is a prime example, but it's more than that. He seems to have trouble focusing on what he's trying to say, as if he's "overthinking" every word. The "uuh's" and other lapses don't sound like the candidate that beat Sen. Clinton in the primaries. That is, unless you count the later stages of the primaries, when he couldn't win the nomination outright. He "backed into" the nomination, and he knows it.
No sooner did he "smooth things over" with Sen. Clinton (if not all of her supporters), when Sen. McCain named Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate. Since then, Sen. McCain has had a signifigant "bounce" in almost all of the various polls. This was a bigger swing than after the Rev. Wright mess came to light, late in the primaries. (With all due respect to Sean Hannity, who broke the Wright story much earlier).
There is more to this "bounce." Sen. Obama has lost some of the lustre he had, as a "new" type of politician. He is increasingly being defined as a "typical liberal" on many issues, when compared to McCain, who has had to explain his crossovers into liberal territory (illegal immigration, campaign finance reform, etc...). McCain has given definitive answers on why he votes the way he has, and has a long record to defend.
This will likely be a close race, but I won't be surprised if McCain wins by a larger margin than either of the last two elections. Sen. Obama is a formidable candidate, and may be a great president, if elected. Or not. Still, it might be interesting to see the Democrats running not only the presidency, but both houses of the Congress. "SHUDDER"
Seriously, though, Sen. McCain, and Gov. Palin really are "agents of change," in the Republican party. Many of the old "Reagan Democrats" (including many women in their '40's) are still around, and they're the vanguard of this movement in the polls. Whether it will last is the question. Stay tuned, for further analysis.