If the fine or tax is less than the cost of health insurance, millions of people will be dumped from, or drop their "current" insurance, in the coming months. This will not be due to "some government bureaucrat," but Democrats in the US Congress, if they pass health care reform this Sunday night. This follows a pattern of passing the toughest votes on weekends and holidays. "It's 10 PM, do you know how you're representative is going to vote?" I know my rep, Carolyn McCarthy, will vote for it, because she's part of the Dem leadership.
What legislators don't account for, when they pass regulatory laws, is the anti-regulatory nature of private individuals, and most businesses. That's why only a few are talking about this (well, there's Rush, Hannity, Beck, and a few others, but "no one" listens to them...), and the MSM will try to say "no one saw this coming," when it happens. It will happen over this Summer, leading up to the elections.
What is likely to happen, if the Senate bill passes, is the fight for the House rvision bill, which must pass the Senate. The GOP is going to try to use this process to strip out certain parts of the law, or at least stretch out the process, to allow time for everyone to examine what the Dems passed into the law already. If the Dems are attempting a "fix," then there is something wrong with the law as passed. This will be politically exploited, beyond a doubt.
There is a chance that I'm wrong about employers dropping insurance, but I think that other parts of this law will have similar "unintended" consequences, any one of which will damage our overall economy. It's going to be a tough Summer for Democrats, whether this gets passed or not. That political reality is why I think it will pass tonight. They've been herded to the ledge, and there's nowhere to go, but off...