2022 Midterm Election Outcome and Analysis is Complicated: Biden Wins, Trump and Dems Still Lose?

 

   I have to admit being surprised by the results of the 2022 midterm elections. The partisan in me was disappointed, but the analyst in me was intrigued. In some ways, it resembled what happened in 2020, when the GOP lost the White House and Senate, but gained seats in the House. While the presidency wasn't on the ballot this year, the similarities in the Senate are uncanny, with Georgia's one Senate race going into a runoff, as both did in 2020. There is a lot to unpack and analyze, and I've waited until the final results are in, except for the Georgia runoff, before posting this. On Nov. 21st, there were still some localities that are still counting ballots, amazingly, but none of them made a big difference in the national outcome. By Nov. 29th, it looks as if the GOP has a 220 to 213 advantage over Dems, with 2 seats still undecided, but leaning Republican.

   At this point, the GOP has won control of the House of Representatives, by a slim margin.  In 2020, the Dems held on to the House by a slim margin. They lost seats, even though their presidential candidate won. The Republicans gained House seats in both the 2020 and 2022 elections. All of this has to be considered along with the impact that Pres. Trump had on the electorate. There were several other factors that came into play, particularly the SCOTUS ruling in Dobbs vs. Jackson Women's Health Organization, rising crime since 2020, and reaction to the closing of schools during the pandemic.

   Let's start with Pres. Trump. I don't propound any type of "stolen election" theory about 2020, but I will say there were enough irregularities that I don't think people who do think so are crazy, or neccesarily wrong. There was a concerted effort by progressives to tilt the election in their favor, and they have admitted it. I don't know for sure that they "stole" the election from Pres. Trump, and definitely don't think that any progressive scheme impacted the 2022 midterms significantly. What did seem to impact the midterms significantly was blind allegiance to Pres. Trump, and his "stop the seal" campaign strategy. Most of them lost.

   It looks as if there are several clear winners from both parties, in various states. Republicans romped in Florida, riding on Gov. DeSantis' coattails, but also in "blue" New York, where Rep. Lee Zeldin failed to win the governorship, but brought an unprecedented amount of "down-ticket" GOP candidates across the goal post to election. Democrats locked up Illinois as a union and Democrat controlled state, and won a slim majority of governorships that were up for grabs this cycle. 

   Also winning handily were the sitting governors in Georgia and Texas, which made clear losers or their opponents, former Democrat "rising stars" Robert Francis "Beto" O'Rourke, and Stacy Abrams, who may still think she won her first election against Gov. Kemp, back in 2018. This raises one big question of this election cycle: How much does "candidate quality" count for? I would compare these progressive "stars" to the "MAGA" candidates that Pres. Trump promoted, except the progs have kept promoting them for years. I hope the GOP won't follow that pattern, unless the candidates can drop their focus on the past, and look to the future, that might not include Pres. Trump.

   This question was first raised by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, referring to the candidates that former Pres. Trump supported in the GOP primaries. It turns out that McConnell was right, as were the Democratic groups that spent money to support these MAGA candidates in the primaries. However, one could say the same about candidates like O'Rourke and Abrams, as "far left" stars with no real voter support. However, no Republican groups spent money supporting them, as far as I know. Mitch McConell spent a bunch of money supporting the MAGA candidates that Democrats helped win the primaries, even as Pres. Trump refused to spend a penny to support them after the primaries. This is another strike against Trump, which is more than one too many. 

   Almost all of Pres. Trump's "big name" endorsed candidates lost, including Lee Zeldin, who really had a shot at winning the Governorship of deep blue NYS. I supported former Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino in the primaries, because he wasn't echoing Trump's "stop the steal" line. I now believe that he could have beat Gov. Hochul, because of those few percentage points that Zeldin lost by were probably from suburban independents that hated Trump. Crime was the issue moving voters, not Trump or abortion rights. Again, this was how Trump's influence worked in the primary elections. There is a lesson, there. One only has to look at Gov. Kemp, of Georgia, Gov. Youngkin, of Virginia, or Gov. DeSantis of Florida to see that keeping Trump at arms distance is a good campaign strategy.

   Meanwhile, Democrats are not on the road to political oblivion. There are many cities where they continue winning. Several states, such as Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada, among others, still elected Democrats to statewide offices, mostly because of these urban areas. I mentioned above that crime, education, and abortion all were other significant factors in the midterms, but perhaps I missed one or two. Those would be the Biden administration's funnelling of money into the illusory "student loan forgiveness," which will not materialize, and the continuing racial polarization, which is promoted by claiming that "white supremacism" is one of the biggest threats to national security.

   Unfortunately for Democrats, the GOP is slowly chipping away at this new take on an old political strategy. In fact, many black and other minority voters are realizing that the Democrat's claims of "racial bias" in law enforcement are hollow, and that their "reforms" have led to thousands more "black lives" being lost to criminals, not police. It's interesting that NYC was early in realizing this in 2022, but whether it will continue as a political trend is still up in the air. Will it spread to the "Blue" cities in the heartland, such as St. Louis, New Orleans, Memphis? Who knows.

   What's more is that Pres. Biden looks to be embracing a "Damn the torpedoes, full steam ahead!" policy, to the far left. Some state governors have the power to do this, but even Gov. Newsome in California is trying to steer his policy in a more centrist direction. It looks like reality is biting at their heels, over in progressiveland. Pres. Biden is a drag on the national party, because he's embraced the fathest left faction, and independents are joining Republicans in opposing that agenda. Biden thinks that using Trump as a "boogeyman" will continue to pay off electorally. He's wrong.

   Even with the Dems making Trump the central issue of the midterms, minority voters chose the GOP in greater percentages than in either of the previous two elections. In fact, the numbers of minority voters leaving the Democratic party are unprecedented. Just as important, though, is appealing to independent voters with policies that are practical, and not ideological. These are winning issues: In education, teaching should focus on reading, writing, and arithmatic, and teachers should NOT talk about anything regarding gender, sex, or sexual identity, especially with grade school children. On crime: elected officials should support enforcement of the laws that are on the books, as written. Law enforcement should be supported, and held to an even higher standard of following the laws. 

   If the results of the 2022 midterms have shown us anything, it's that voters aren't "all in" for what either party was offering, in many areas of the nation. The fact that there were such diverse outcomes across the country is a good sign, because it means that voters aren't following "national trends," as much as what's happening in their state or locality. This is what the Founding Fathers intended, and it's kind of funny that the localized targeting of the internet is creating the same experience as people from 200 years ago, who didn't have news from outside their own area. While todays voters do have that access, they seem to vote on their local issues. Notice the recent focus, at least by conservative news outlets, on local school board races, and how that played out in last year's election of Gov. Youngkin, in VA. It looks as if that trend continued this year, with Gov. DeSantis having success at endorsing school board candidates.

It's a complex political landscape, and almost impossible to predict. However, I will keep trying, as well as analyzing political and cultural developments. At this point, I think the GOP is poised for gains, if they can move beyond Pres. Trump, and the Democrats are poised for further losses, if they keep embracing really bad Socialist, race baiting, and anti-woman "transgender" policies. I can see the GOP moving past Trump, with a big fight, but there's NO way that Dems will support women's rights over transexuals. Women are once again second-class citizens, this time to men who say they are women. That's my radical prediction, but we'll see how it plays out.