The "signs" all say that '06 will cause a shift leftward in Congress, perhaps giving majorities to Dems in either the House or Senate. This is the "conventional wisdom," a term coined by the late John Kenneth Galbraith. What other signs are out there? The Black political community is being courted by Republicans, who point to 40 years of failed Democrat policies, at the same time that Dems are courting the expansion of the Latino vote, by citing illegal immigrants as the new "civil rights" beneficiaries.
There is also the "culture of corruption" issue, which is older than I am (by far, I must add). This turned out to be a booby-trap for the Dems to wade into, by going after Tom DeLay. Now several Dems are caught in their own webs of corruption, and it seems to be a wash at this point. Before the elections, public opinion may even be against the Dems on this issue. More shoes to drop here, on both sides, is my sense.
Hat tip to Cindy Adams, the famous gossip from the NY POST, who predicted about a dozen congressman to be indicted. When "Mother" says something about politics, it's virtually a lock. Since then, that San Diego republican has gone to jail, and a New Orleans Democrat is next on the frying pan. She's like an oracle, at least when she talks about politics. I read her for the gossip, though.
The media will be very influential in the '06 elections. More people are watching FOX NEWS, and other news outlets that tell both sides, than ever in the era of TV. The liberal lock on the media is broken. The "old" media monopoly is not dead yet, but it may have the opposite effect than it had in it's heyday. "Media bias" has become a topic in the popular cultural debate, even for those who don't understand it (hello, Hollywood!). All of the signs in this area show that while people still watch the MSM, they mistrust it more than ever. Over the top liberal media support may hurt the Dems this year.
Then there's the immigration issue, mentioned above. This one is like a tidal wave, and I'll compare the Republicans to the ships in two movies: "The Posiedon Adventure," and "Krakatoa: East of Java." In "Posiedon," which has a remake coming out this week, the ship takes the wave on the side, and rolls over. This is what will happen if the Republicans avoid decisive action on this issue. I also blame Pres. Bush for not leading in the right direction on this issue.
In "Krakatoa," the ship turns into the huge tidal wave released by the titular volcano's eruption, and survives intact. This would symbolize a better course of action by the Republicans (especially with Hillary on record in support of a wall). The looming threat is of losing the Latino Republican vote. This ties in with the courting of Latinos by Dems mentioned above. Regardless of what they do, Republicans will be painted as anti-immigrant racists. The best course is to take the issue head-on, and do what's right. Latino voters will respond positively, and the Republicans will survive intact.
The Latinos that spout this "pro-illegal" rhetoric are usually lefties themselves. Note that Latinos have just surpassed Blacks as the largest minority population in the U.S. It must be unusually bracing for the Black left-wingers to be cuckolded this way in their own party. Because this story is about internal Democrat racial politics, it's not covered in the MSM. However, it will have an impact on this election, with Blacks voting for Republicans that take a hard line on illegal immigration.
The ACLU's influence is becoming a mainstream issue, which may factor in this election cycle as well. STOP THE ACLU is a grassroots organization, which publicizes the egregious positions of this extreme liberal organization. They are one of a number of groups that are fighting this battle in the public square. The ACLU mainly works through the Judicial branch, but legislative action to restrain the judicial branch is becoming more accepted as a remedy. Electing Conservative Republicans is the sane answer to the pernicious influence of the ACLU, to the average voter.
The anti-ACLU backlash applies to a host of issues, not least of which is protecting children, something the liberals used to their advantage in the '90's. This issue has turned around 180 degrees. Liberals are now on the forefront of defending child-predators, led by the ACLU and selected liberal judges. Another big issue that the ACLU is hurting Dems on is their opposition to every US policy/program to fight Al Queda and other terrorist groups. Sens. Kennedy, Kerry, Durbin and others may not realize it, but their words are obviously taken from the ACLU's rhetoric, and widely played in the Middle East. In other words, they smear America to the world, then complain about our bad reputation, blaming it on Pres. Bush, and Republicans.
U.S. citizens, average Janes and Joes everywhere, are waking up to this sick reality. When the polls say that whatever percentage of the country thinks we're going in the "wrong" direction, more than half of that number still thinks we're going in a leftward direction, even under total Republican political control (LEAVFACT, NOT BASED ON ANY EMPIRICAL DATA, or "I'll bet!"). The greatest thing about our system is also the most frustrating; that whoever is out of power still gets a say, small or more often larger than they deserve, in our government. STOP THE ACLU intends to make the ACLU's influence as small as possible. There is a real need for that goal to be attained, with so many liberal Republicans running around unopposed.
Iraq doesn't seem to hang around the Republicans' neck like a noose, as much as it did a few months ago. Casualties are down from their (historically low) highs of over 100 a month. This sounds morbid, but it has taken Iraq off the table in the political debate, to a degree. Look for an upsurge in attacks on US forces leading up to the Nov. US elections, which will help Democrats. Also look for Zarqawi to be caught before then, which will help the Republicans, if it should happen. If neither happens, status quo favors political progress in Iraq, which benefits Republicans.
This is a little GRAFFITI POLITTI, with many subjects left uncovered. Social Security reform; educational bias and (public) wastefulness; health care and the fraud associated with it. Gas prices, which don't affect me directly, as a bicycle guy (though oil prices affect my rent, and gas prices affect other prices I pay); international relations; Israel and Palestine (It's gonna be a country soon, even though it shouldn't be, under any sane notion of a country); Africa; China; Russia's regression from, and Belarus' resistance to progress against totalitarian corruption are among these subjects.
All of these are on LEAVWORLD'S radar, but not mentioned as often as I'd like. That's why I put out a rant like this one every once in a while; just for my own sanity. I have to say what I'm thinking, and not worry about being embarassed until later! LOL! -Just kidding, these are all serious issues, and I hope my words provoke some serious thought about them before the '06 elections!
LINKED AT STOP THE ACLU "OPEN BORDERS WEEKEND FIESTA"
PS: The Mexican illegal lobby thought they could do what the French Muslims and others groups have done, which was to affect French government policy in their favor through street "protests". The result in the USA will be the opposite.